š« YEET 31: Charlie and the FUD Factory
Welcome to The Yeet, a weekly DD where we try to tilt the casino...
Hey!Ā Iām @yourboymilt, and welcome to retailās Sunday Paper.
I should probably let you know...This is not financial advice!Ā We are here to entertain while giving you ideas, perspective, and angles. Do your own research, I prithee. And if you arenāt subscribed, join us here:
Creator/Editor:@YourBoyMiltĀ Ā The Architect: š§ Ā Ā Publishing Associate:@YourGirlRachie
Pt. 1: Weekās Thoughts, Pt. 2: Build-A-Trader (B-A-T) no. 12: Triggers 201 ,Ā Pt. 3: Watchlist (Unusual Whales, Kalshi, SpotRAMBO), Pt. 4: Index Forecasts (@daarkmaagician ) Pt. 5: TLDR
Editorial Board: @jimengland & @jameoneill
š« Pt. 1:Ā Charlie and the FUD Factory
šµOoompa-Loompa Dumpity Dump
What do you do when Jerome wonāt pump
Ooompa loompa Riggity Ree
Marketās eating shit from FUDšµ
You and I are in a money factory of a market, where profits have been doled out like sweet green chocolatey treats.Ā Of courseāas with any ubiquitous provider of pleasureāsomething more sinister lurks beneath.Ā Perhaps we bulls have been too gluttonous, a bunch of Augustus Gloops driving tech valuations high into the sky inside of a glass elevator.Ā
Well, shit, life comes at you fast when youāre holding 12/3 expiration tech calls on a Monday.Ā But this weekās selloff was a production, a well-presented fiction romp, something like the conspiratorial gloss that makes Marvel movies believable for a second.Ā Ā
Brace yourself for the FUD my friends, because weāre now the extras in the newest market film; Jerome Powell and the FUD Factory.Ā Of course, there are legitimate factors that flow through our market like a river of tempting chocolate; Iām no hater, kudos to the bears who finally got some much needed catastrophic dropsā¦
Whose our wily tour guide on this journey through perilous FUD Factory masked as a sweet-smelling producer of profits?Ā Of course, itās our Chocolatey Chairman, one Mr. Jerome Powell!Ā Oh me oh my, how he led us to believe things were one way when they were another!
Well, I guess our tour guide, the mysterious Mr. Powell, said ānow that Iāve got job security lemme tell you motha fuckas how itās really going down.āā and go down it did.Ā To add to insult to injury, JPow also let us know that The Fed is moving up the date of the taper by a few months.Ā Uh oh.
Inflationary control is a myth, a ghost, a vaporous cloud of nothing that obfuscated a harsh reality; that being, my friends, that the cost of goods and services is absolutely fucked.Ā Ā
The cost of goods and services in October jumped 6.2% over the past year, with food prices up 5.3% over the last year and energy shooting up a whopping 30%, according to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. That means overall inflation is running well above the Fedās 2% goalāand has been for a while. The Consumer Price Index has been ticking up month after month since May 2020.
Yeah, no shit inflation isnāt transitory when a pear costs $24.53 plus tax.
Of course the biggest culprit touted for the dip in our market is that pesky Omicron variant.Ā Some say the largest way it differs from the previous mutations is that itās less deadly but more contagious.Ā Well, the way I say it differs from the previous mutations is that itās sending my tech calls into the shitter instead of to Valhalla.
Ooompa loompa why did tech fall?
Because the MMs manipulated your calls
Oompa loompa the big money sold
Leaving you with worthless bags to hold
Ouch.Ā Well if stocks are reaching new yearly lows while Covid FUD is reaching all time highs, I guess Iāll wait until ZM is trading at AMC prices to go ahead and grab some.
And, Iād be remiss if I didnāt give an acknowledgement to our friends in the East, with DIDIās delisting likely foretelling a host of other Chinese companies on their way out.Ā The effect was swift and damning, sending Chinese ADRās crumbling in market share and value on the American exchanges. How do I know how swift and damning it was?Ā I bought BABA calls two hours before the news broke during the trading session, AMA.
Didi's situation is set to spark a broader reassessment of Chinese companies that have listed shares abroad ā including Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Baidu, JD.com, Nio (NIO) and Tencent Music (TME). Will they suffer the same fate?
"Didi's repatriation looks likely to be the start of a trend, and the market should expect that others will follow," Silvers said. "Equity investors may not wait for the other shoe to drop."
But of course our tour wasnāt over through the perilous factory of doom and gloom until the very end (hopefully) on Friday.Ā A million Crypto Bros cried in Binary as everything from $BTC to $SHIB got absolutely wrecked in a perilous fashion.Ā Ā
Want to guess what the cause was?
Fear. Uncertainty. And Doubt.
An economic forecaster has predicted that the crypto market is about to have its hands tied by red tape and, he reckons that bitcoins will soon only be worth $14,000 each.
Just before the weekend, well known investor Louis Navellier warned that the US central bank could start ātaperingā crypto, which could ruin the market.
āThe Fed is tapering, and this should create a correction in risk assets, of which bitcoin is a part,ā Mr Navellier wrote.
āThe more the Fed tapers, the more volatility we should see in both stocks and bonds ā and yes, bitcoin, too.ā
He added that he could see bitcoin dropping to nearly pre-pandemic levels in terms of price, and thought it could stay at that level.
But, since weāre in the land of the uncertain, the unfair, and the insubstantial, Iād like to take the foil off a chocolate wrapper and turn it into a little tinfoil hat.Ā Imagine a new administration beginning, and inheriting the high asset values and bubble-esque doom of the last one.Ā Imagine a Fed chair selection taking longer than any selection in the modern era.Ā Picture that same man is responsible for the high valuations due to his liquidity response to the Covid crash, and it looks like weāre in for a bubble burst in the spring and summer of 2022.
In our hypothetical situation, this would occur just before midterm elections began to heat up, and an economically fucked environment would be a no-no for re-election.Ā Crypto fear-mongering, the word transitory being dumped, and even the taper has been moved up on the timeline by our new Chairman.Ā This would allow the asset valuation bubble to relieve pressure, providing a bounce-back face ripper akin to 2020 heading into the summer.
Two weeks after his reappointmentāthe longest selection process in historyāJerome did a complete about-face on everything he has ardently supported this year.Ā His new directive is to combat inflation and speed up QE tapering, problems he swept under the rug only 3 months ago.Ā Now, tin foil tight around our skullsā¦what if he did that as a condition of reinstatement.
But then again, that would make the market entirely manipulated.Ā And that certainly canāt be the case...right?
Well, anythingās possible in the American FUD Factory.
Welcome to YEET no. 31, brought to you by Wonka
š¦ Pt. 2:Ā Build-A-Trader (B-A-T) no. 12: Triggers 201āYour Guide to Creating Triggers in a Choppy Market
Hi guys!
Weāre finally reaching the point where weāre learning how to actually create the trigger!Ā I was previously going to use the easiest and initial method to teach this portionāidentifying breakout triggers; those are the easiest and most powerful, especially for newer traders; in this market though, the two-way price action triggers weāll create are a better option. The first part of the tutorial, however, will still focus on basics which are universal.
The support and resistance levels you drew in previous tutorials are still relevant and will continue to be so; even in this method which focuses on choppy price action, s/r levels are a GREAT way to know when to trim or add to a position. For this tutorial however, we are going to have our charts NUDE, so that I can give you a clear look at the price action.
Creating Triggers In a Choppy Market!
In this video and the explainer photos, we are going to focus on the types of triggers created in this marketāprice action levels created by pops or drops that may be at their bottoms or tops (thatās a bar).
Use the video below, and the pics to help you remember (or whatever works for you if you learn differently).Ā
Step-by-step written version:
š° Please use the hourly interval
Think CLEAN.Ā Triggers are all about where the top of recent action has a chance to roam free, meaning there are no reversals and bullshit price action above that represents chop or impassable gauntlets of candles.Ā The less āclutterā you see above, the more legit your trigger is.
You are looking for free space above the current price of the stock where itās points of cloggedĀ price action stop.
Letās use an analogy:
āļøThe Chess Board: What are our pieces, what are their pieces, and how do we move?
Imagine that you want to get to the other side of the price action chess board to tendies.Ā
š¤·āāļø What move gets our pieces across: Gaps and Continuous candles (without a wick OR up until the end of the wick)Ā
š āTheirā pieces that stop us: Clutters in the price actionāwicks and reversalsāto block us from moving across the board.
š¤ Think about it.Ā If you see reversals or wicks like the ones above, it means that your ticker is going to have trouble making it across the board.Ā Why?Ā Because in their simplest definition, those represent resistance.Ā To get our Queen across, we need NO resistance, just like in chess!
How do we move our pieces? Find the TOP of the price action over the past 1 to 2 weeks that ONLY has a long continuous candle or gap above itāmeaning there is no cluttered price action RESISTANCE above your chosen top of the recent price actionāthatās our TRIGGGGGUHHHH!Ā
So, that blue line is our trigger on the gap play here.
Hereās an example of a move activated when the top of recent price action over the last couple of weeks meets a long candle:
So, to summarize that portion (on the hourly, over the past two weeks time frame), to find your trigger:
You are looking near the current price for the point where the price action only has a long candle or gap above it. This ātop of the price actionā is located
a) at the tip of the wick that only has a gap or long candle above it over the past two weeks. Or, b) itās at a point of candle reversal that only has a gap or long candle above it over the past two weeksāThis is where you enter your trade.
To know the when to dip out of your play, wait for it to either:
a. Complete the gap
b. Reaches the top of the candleās (wick or body)
c. A candle reversal exists within the past two weeks that precedes a or b
Try it yourself to get the hang of it!Ā CRWD example:
āWhere is the top of the price action here on CRWD near the current price?Ā This would be our trigger (hint: youāre looking for the first place where the opposing chess piecesāpoints of multiple resistance via wicks and reversalsāfinally stop, allowing you to run free for a bit.)
š„³ļø 197.44 is our trigger! So then, what is our move?Ā Ā
In this market, the resulting gap down plays are a great way to find easy triggers to the top and bottom-side.Ā Letās check some out:
Look at RUGR man, so inspirational:
64.58 trigger with a 69.4 target (that much distance is like a swing or a monthly btw, that shit aināt happening in a day trade)
How about a little NFLX.Ā Take a look for yourself before checking below!
604.87 trigger, 611.35 target
In this marketāor any market reallyāif you have a way to look at gap downs or gap ups you can find easy trigger plays.Ā For example, on the Yahoo Finance app you can just set notifications to look at what tickers had big moves up or down that day.Ā If you have Think or Swim, you can just go to the āGap Upā or āGap Downā Watchlist.
What did we find? Look at DOCUās struggling ass post-earnings.Ā Itās baking in the oven for a ride back up!
There are a lot more ways to play triggers, including the easiest way: playing full breakouts.Ā But right now, the market has fucked up these charts so much that most stocks are very far from breakout triggers.
For now, these gap up and gap downs should give you some two play idea.Ā Ā
We drop YouTube videos multiple times daily, breaking down plays in nuance with these strategies.Ā Hopefully that answers some of the many follow-up questions you likely have.Ā Ā
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCbqU9HYBhua3DRiqCOOpI_Q
For other questions just drop me a DM @yourboymilt, and when I find the (increasingly limited) time, Iāll chop it up with ya!
āļøPeace
š Pt. 3: The Whale Watchlist Picks
Made possible with help from the @unusualwhales Alerts and Flow Tool. Sign up here!
š Kalshi Intriguing Play of the Week: Trading on a coming RECESSION
Feeling bearish?Ā Put your money where your mouth is!Ā Currently āYESā contracts on whether or not weāll enter a recession in Q2 are trading at .20 a contractāif youāre right, itās a 5 bagger, ya filthy bear!
You can also ride it up as the FUD increasesāwith more and more Omicron, valuations, and a coming QE taper, this can be an easy 20-40% trade.
šÆRAMBO to Watch
Events Catalysts listed daily at The YEETās websiteāspotrambo.com
RAMBOs are investor Relations And Meeting Buy Opportunities, or in other words stock catalysts outside of earnings (such as Investor Days, Analyst Days, Product Launches, Conferences, and more!).Ā Ā
šÆRAMBO to Watch: Twitter, Inc. to present at the Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference
Tuesday, 12/7/2 9:05 am PST
Jackās successor gets a chance to lay out his vision for the company.Ā If he promotes the current monetization paths Twitter has been recently adding (tips, spaces, etc), be prepared for a bullish market reaction.Ā Investors hated Jack anyway, lol.
š Whale WatchList: FDX, AMD, RGR, MSFT, NVDA; Meme of the week: SOFI
Until further notice in this market, flow reads will include both bid and ask side flow for a fuller picture.Ā Once we go back to full green mode, Iām yeeting ask-side again lol.
1.āļø FDX calls š > 241.6
šŖWhy we like it: Strong performance against Fridayās doo-doo dump and an upcoming dividend make FDX a likely candidate to deliver the tendies!Ā Nice lil gap fill, close to the trigger.
š FDX: Flow Chart 5k+ Premium 52% š
āļøFDX: Expirations and Strike
āļøExp: 12/17, 3/18š 12/17, 12/31š»
šØStrikes: 240, 250š 250š»
š FDX: Chart
š« The FDX Trigger: 241.6
2. AMD Calls š > 144.26 // Puts šæ < 140.6
āļøTwo way play
š AMD: Flow Chart 50k+ Premium 75%š»
āļøAMD: Expirations and Strike
āļøExp: 12/17š»
šØStrikes: 150š»
š AMD: Chart
š« The AMD Triggers: Calls > 144.26 // Puts < 140.6
3. RGR Calls š > 64.6
š RGR: Flow Chart 1k+ Premium 55%š
āļøRGR: Expirations and Strike
āļøExp: 1/21š 7/15š»
šØStrikes: 65š
š RGR: Chart
š« The RGR Trigger: 64.6
4. MSFT Calls š > 323.95 // Puts šæ < 317.93
āļøTwo-way play!
š MSFT: Flow Chart 50k+ Premium 57% š»
āļøMSFT: Expirations and Strike
āļøExp: 12/17, LEAPsš 12/17, LEAPs š»
šØStrikes: 320š 320, 325š»
š MSFT: Chart
š« The MSFT Triggers: 323.95 // puts < 317.93
5. NVDA Callsš > 308.7 // Puts šæ < 301.4
āļøTwo-way play!
š NVDA: Flow Chart Premium 25k+: 75% bearish
āļøNVDA: Expirations and Strike
āļøExp: 1/21š 12/10š»
šØStrikes: 250š170, 200š»
š NVDA: Chart
š« The NVDA Triggers: Calls > 308.7 // Puts < 301.4
6. MEME OF THE WEEK: SOFI
Why we like it: beaten to a bloody pulp but still a great company, this one is sitting right below the call trigger and has great flow on the dump!
š SOFI: Flow Chart
āļøSOFI: Expirations and Strike
āļøExp: 3/18, 7/15š 7/15š»
šØStrikes: 15š
š SOFI: Chart
š« The SOFI Trigger: 15.51
Pt. 4: Weather: SPY & QQQ Forecast by @daarkmaagician š¦
Below is the chart & info for a SPY & QQQ forecast from @daarkmaagician, his DISCORD is the place to be (YEETers get two weeks free!).Ā
SPY/QQQ Charts Legend:
Solid Blue= ATH, Green= Dark Pool Buys, Red= Dark Pool Sells, Purple= Dark Pools, Orange= Supports/Resistances, Teal= 9ema
SPY Forecast:
SPY Charts:
QQQ Forecast:
QQQ Charts:
Make sure you follow @daarkmaagician to get updates on the indexes daily!
Pt. 5: TLDR & GOODBYE āļø
TLDR:
Pt. 2:Ā Triggers 201āHow to create triggers in choppy price action
Pt. 3:Ā Watchlist
š Kalshi Intriguing Play of the Week: Trading on a coming RECESSION
šÆSpotrambo Pick of the week: Twitter, Inc. to present at the Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference
š Whale WatchList: FDX, AMD, RGR, MSFT, NVDA; Meme of the week: SOFI
Pt. 4: āā SPY & QQQ Forecast by @daarkmaagician
Goodbye and thanks for reading! Questions, scoops, comments @yourboymilt or /u/alldatdalton. See you next week! ā