⚔️ YEET no. 29: Helm's Deep
Welcome to The Yeet, a weekly DD where we try to tilt the casino...
Hey! I’m @yourboymilt, and welcome to retail’s Sunday Paper.
I should probably let you know...This is not financial advice! We are here to entertain while giving you ideas, perspective, and angles. Do your own research, I prithee. And if you aren’t subscribed, join us here:
Creator/Editor:@YourBoyMilt The Architect: 🧠 Publishing Associate:@YourGirlRachie
Pt. 1: Week’s Thoughts, Pt. 2: Triggers 101 & 102 Video Review, Pt. 3: Build-A-Trader (B-A-T) no. 11: 9sma Strategies (@hereticgate), Pt. 4: Watchlist (Unusual Whales, Kalshi, SpotRAMBO), Pt. 5: Index Forecasts (@daarkmaagician ) Pt. 6: TLDR
Editorial Board: @jimengland & @jameoneill
⚔️ Pt. 1: Helm’s Deep
First fell the rain. Then fell the arrows. Then fell millions of bears in the anguish of battle lost.
Somewhere amongst the wind and silence, in quiet contemplation of the enemy marching towards us, a distant growl is heard beyond the front lines. Though triumphant on the battlefield this past week, danger lurks behind the fallen and wounded first wave of slain puts. Even though many a tech call had fallen, our hope was buoyed by the boomer stocks we’d long since forsaken.
For now we clink mugs of meade and dance to the piper’s tune, for we’ve lived to fight another day. From the jaws of defeat came a bullish victory they’ll sing songs about for generations to come; retail earnings smacked expectations out of the park due to retail sales jumping the most they have in seven months.
Department store chains Macy’s and Kohl’s both reported quarterly results that smashed expectations on Thursday, with both companies raising their forecasts for the year and continuing the trend of strong retail earnings this week.
Shares of Macy’s surged over 21%, Kohl’s stock 8%.
Boomer earnings for the win, who’d have thunk it. I suppose high-risk, high reward, was the name of the game for struggling accounts this week
And here I thought Macy’s was just the store at the mall you used to help you figure out where you parked—I suppose the market for dress shirts and overpriced jeans is alive and well. HD also shattered expectations due to strong demand—a win undoubtedly aided by bears purchasing plywood to build their new shacks under the bridge. All these companies acknowledged the effect of inflation and its causing higher prices, but weary online purchasers decided to deploy their stimmy savings at brick and mortars with full gusto. I guess those that called the top yet again this week will pay the ultimate price.
But this week was merely the skirmish, a shot across the bow in the war between the bears and the bulls. The largest battle of our trading generation looms in the distance, and I can hear reddit keyboard warriors click-clacking into a crescendo. Ah yes, it is nearly upon us: The Market Battle of 2022. It was a year that once seemed so far away—I remember looking at LEAPs for 1/21/22 sometime in the early spring. Hope sprang eternal then from the wells of promise as we profited hand over fist. Well, those shits are now a monthly, and we’re not the only ones who realize time and BP is dwindling before the showdown. It’s only the bold that fortune favors, and in the land of the traders the victor's sword is their savior; the sharp tipped, ill-advised YOLO.
But the battle is not between the retail bears and bulls, my brethren—it is both of us now, brothers in arms, staring down the invisible hand which guides the market. Who are our enemies? Analysts and hedge funds who want revenge for their lost battle of 2021. And what is the mental fortitude of our enemy? Apparently, they are dumb as shit.
Wall Street forecasters have been saying all year that a slowdown in the 20-month bull market would be natural, with valuations stretched, growth forecast to slow and the Federal Reserve expected to hike interest rates in 2022. But so far in the fourth quarter, consumers continue to defy the pessimism. A Fed model of economic growth is on track to exceed almost all projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists
Nice work, guys.
The might of the enemy will be great in testing our resolve next year, for they have many factors working in their favor. Inflation is expected to run over 2% well into 2022, bringing with it sensitivity in Treasury Yields. Rising yields means lower tech earnings and valuations, one of the key components in our recent rally (Treasury Yields and tech stocks have an inverse relationship). And of course, there’s also newly spreading lockdowns in Europe which struck a blow to reliably rising cyclicals like oil.
The plague may be upon us yet again in the unforgiving Winter cold.
After Austria imposed strict lockdowns to combat a Covid wave, blue-chip U.S. stocks and oil sank amid renewed concerns about COVID-19, which also boosted safe havens like the U.S. dollar.
Banks and travel companies bore the brunt of the losses, as investors fretted about reduced economic activity if case numbers rise and jumped to safer havens in tech stocks.
Well, RIP to those of you who believed BA was really going to turn things around this time.
But the true strength of the enemy lies in their most damning weapon yet, the mortar careening towards us in the night. The Fed has already alerted us to the tapering of Quantitative Easing, and with that comes a rise in the Federal Interest Rate. This event will be a thousand arrows dipped in fire, cascading sheets of steel and flame onto accounts across the land. The destruction to all indexes will be so swift and so furious, that not even the shield of margin can protect you from a destined demise.
Outgunned and out-resourced, we may also be outmanned; we’ll be engaging in battle without the retail army that helped us flank the powers that be with our idiotic ambush.
The retail trading surge that began with pandemic lockdowns has now abated, as total equity volume from individual investors fell to 19% in the third quarter, down from 24% at the start of this year, according to Securities and Exchange Commission and market data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
Some may have come out ahead, but we expect most individual investors to transition to long-term strategies as day-trader losses mount
I give a great thank you to these warriors whose accounts blew up, making the ultimate sacrifice. Tales of their bravery will be told in Wendy’s fry kitchens for time immemorial, as an assistant manager plays the flute atop barren tables...
🎵 Alas, great YOLOer, slain warrior of Wendy’s
Whence an incorrect FURU screwed you, you lost all your tendies
I prithee, young bagholder, by the campfire’s warm light
A paycheck grants thee another weekly, for Margin Calls tonight🎵
The Pyrrhic Victory is part art and part recklessness, a willingness to suffer to stand tall in the face of destruction for triumph in the end. Scorched earth and lost souls cover the expanse, like so many bearish accounts this summer’s past. As we approach 2022, and the factors lining up against retail feel overwhelming, a row of gleaming spears pointed menacingly toward our experience. On their side they have inflation, treasury yields, overextended tech valuations, rate hike increases, waning retail interest, and a potential change of Fed leadership roiling the markets.
Our army? We have maybe more stimmy coming because of further Covid lockdowns and a relentless desire to Yeet at weeklies. Our army is small, our resources are dwindled, but our hearts are brave and forged in fire. Plus, memes can still provide smash victories in the heart of darkness like a Balrog’s angry glow.
The stage is set, the battle is upon us, and I’ve got to say bulls—2020 looks like it won’t be in our favor. But we’ll still try as we might, YOLOing caution to the wind, fighting until the bitter end through the pain and uncertainty like the warriors of Helm’s Deep.
PS Happy Thanksgiving 🦃
Welcome to YEET no. 29, brought to you by anyone but Legolas, I hate Legolas.
🔫 Pt. 2: Triggers 101 & 102 Video Review
Hey, guess what! The YEET now has a YouTube…The YEETtube! Don’t worry, we’re not selling out as FURUs, we just wanted an easy way for both us and you to know what the hell we’re writing about.
If you know me, by this point you understand I like to trade off of Price Action triggers. The past two weeks we’ve been going through the basics, so we thought it’d be helpful to throw up some videos. to review.
Enjoy! “Smash that like and subscribe button” lmaoooo.
🦇 Pt. 3: Build-A-Trader (B-A-T)no 11: 9sma Strategies
Contributor: @hereticgate
Yo what up, Heretic here! This is wild. I’ve been following the Yeet for a while and shared this little gem with our boy Milt and he asked me to button it up a little and bring it to the table. I’m still learning every day out here with the best of em and I hope this brings some folks a little more confidence when trying to find entries/exits, how to confidently hold trades longer through dips and how to walk away with some bigly fk’n gainz.
🖥 My Current Setup:
TradingView
📈 Indicators I use for this strategy:
▪️ The Moving Average Official Indicator (Combo of 21SMA(White), 50SMA(GREEN), 200SMA (RED or GREEN)+ Cloud.
▪️ 9MA (RED)
▪️ VWAP
💡 (I highly recommend studying the basics of how to establish support/resistance lines, basic candlestick knowledge, and how to read MacD & RSI to further enforce your confidence in your trades)
I choose to use Smoothed/Simple moving averages as my personal preference and this strategy has been producing some bangers.
I claim no sort of ownership or whatever clout there is to this strat and frankly I don’t care haha, just want to see more people out here winning and kicking ass in the markets and getting some degree of financial freedom for themselves.
👍 Rule of Thumb:
🕰 I typically wait a minimum of 30 mins after market open to consider taking a position so the market has a chance to cool off a little and settle into a trend. Yes, you can leave profits on the table but, your portfolio will thank you for avoiding false breaks/rejections from morning volatility.
👨🏫 The theory behind this trade is once price action pushes above/below the 9 Simple Moving Average, you would take entry on 1st successful closing 5 min candle over/under the 9SMA. You can use this strategy whether you are playing the bull/bear side.
I stick to larger float stocks here, Mid-caps are great plays. Blue chips if you got the cheddar. Stock with sub 250mil floats tend to move too violently—but if that's your gig, go'on get wit'cha bad self. Look for catalysts to induce volatility such as; earnings, dividend dates, dip buys, basically any catalyst to kick start some volume.
🛑 Once you've taken your entry, determine your stop loss (Generally just below the wick of the previous candle).
…and sit back and watch the 5min chart.
I used this strategy to trade SPY to the upside on 10/25, then to the downside on 10/26.
🔑 The key here is be patient, wait for the trade to come to you.
A problem I continued to run into daily was deciding where to take my entry on intra-day swings with options.
Now this gives a consistent entry signal with a successful bounce/rejection utilizing the 9SMA/VWAP on the 15/5/1min chart.
When you approach a stock you want to play, mark up Pre-market Highs/Lows as possible support/resistance.
Mark up important support/resistance in the nearby range on larger time frame.
Check Macro time-frame to see if over-all stock trend is moving in the direction you intend to play.
❗️TRY NOT TO FIGHT MACRO-TRENDS.❗️
🐳 We all love @Unusual_Whales. Check flow to see where the over-all bigly money is placing their bets. This data presents a monumental advantage. Without whales I likely wouldn’t be playing options the way, well, a lot of us do.
SPY trade:
🔹 In this trade you can see once the price pushed over the 9(RED LINE) you could have taken an entry and my rule is again…wait 30 mins until after market open to take a position.
🔹 Spicy entry would be a long-wicked 5 min candle continuing to bounce off of the 9.
🔹 Watch how the candles rode this MA, and again so long as the second candle that breaks the trend reverses indicating a false break, you can continue to confidently hold your trade.
⭐️ To Note: If a 5min candle breaks the 9 trend, and VWAP or other support is nowhere in sight, switch to either the 1min/15min to see if there is nearby support/resistance from other MA's/VWAP for the price to bounce/reject from.
🔸 TSLA Trade Below: Price action in the morning pushed over the VWAP+9SMA(Green arrow is entry)
🔸 Yes, price action pulled back below the 9, but was caught by the VWAP with a strong bullish engulfing candle + at this point the trade was still positive. Added to position here.
🔸 2nd Break of 9 - if the 3rd candle closed red I would have likely exited the position or took most of my profits off of the table. Price action formed a hammer and on the 1min it was bouncing off of VWAP with volume and pushed back over the 9.
Feel free to play around with this strategy a bit and follow along on some trades before diving in and getting your feet wet. And, as always, enjoy! 👋
👀 Pt. 4: The Whale Watchlist Picks
Made possible with help from the @unusualwhales Alerts and Flow Tool. Sign up here!
🔒 Kalshi Stone Cold Lock of the Week:
YES on Will plug-in electric vehicles capture more than 4.4% of the car market in November?
Currently Kalshi markets are trading this YES at .76 a contract, meaning it’s a mispricing—we take advantage of those.
Electric Vehicles accelerated market share greatly in the first half of Q1, and that’s expected to grow significantly in the second half of 2021 before booming even more in 2022.
Currently contracts to trade YES on EV plug-ins on Kalshi are trading at .76—meaning if you’re correct on the numbers, you’ll receive 25% profits on this no brainer at expiration. Or, you could flip the contract for a profit once it becomes clearer that The YEET is right and the value of the contracts surge more!
Last week we flipped The Fed decision contracts that we suggested for 35% 💪
🎯RAMBO to Watch
Events Catalysts listed daily at The YEET’s website—spotrambo.com
RAMBOs are investor Relations And Meeting Buy Opportunities, or in other words stock catalysts outside of earnings (such as Investor Days, Analyst Days, Product Launches, Conferences, and more!).
Last week we chose QCOM Investor Day; how’d it go? QCOM ran 6% that day after the event!
🎯RAMBO to Watch:
WOOF to present at the 1st Annual Needham Virtual Consumer Tech / E-Commerce Conference on Monday, November 22, 2021.
WOOF: Flow chart headed into the event: 77% Bullish 1k+ Premium
WOOF: Chart
GOOD LUCK!
👀 Watchlist: XOM, SBUX, NKLA, PEP, LOW
🥳️ BONUS: EBAY-an Unusual Play Bonus video!
Breaking down some unusual call activity taking place before the close on Friday
1. XOM calls > 70
🚨Divergent flow alert🚨
✌️Two way play!
📈 XOM : Flow Chart 5k + Premium: 77% 🐂
⌚️XOM: Expirations and Strike
⌚️Exp: 12/17, 1/21🐂
🔨Strikes: 60, 62.5, 70 🐂
📊 XOM: Chart
🔫 The XOM Trigger: 70.01
2. SBUX calls > 111
🚨Divergent flow alert🚨
📈 SBUX: Flow Chart 1k+ Premium: 87%🐂
⌚️SBUX: Expirations and Strike
⌚️Exp: 11/26, 1/21🐂
🔨Strikes: 110, 111🐂
📊 SBUX: Chart
🔫 The SBUX Trigger: 111.01
3. NKLA calls > 11.96 // Puts 11.82
🚨Divergent flow alert🚨
💩Shitstock
✌️Both way play
📈 NKLA: Flow Chart 1k+ Premium: 62%🐂
⌚️NKLA: Expirations and Strike
⌚️Exp: LEAPs🐂 LEAPs🐻
🔨Strikes: 21🐂 17.5🐻
📊 NKLA: Chart
🔫 The NKLA Trigger: Calls > 11.95 // Puts < 11.82
4. PEP calls > 165.01
Boomer stock! Moves slow! ATM calls if triggered!
📈 PEP: Flow Chart
⌚️PEP: Expirations and Strike
⌚️Exp: 1/21, LEAP🐂 1/21 🐻
🔨Strikes: 160🐂 150🐻
📊 PEP: Chart
🔫 The PEP Trigger: 165.01
5. LOW calls > 250.79
📈 LOW: Flow Chart 2500+ Premium: 75%
⌚️LOW: Expirations and Strike
⌚️Exp: 1/21🐂 🐻
🔨Strikes: 250🐂
📊 LOW: Chart
🔫 The LOW Trigger: 250.8
Pt. 5: Weather: SPY & QQQ Forecast by @daarkmaagician 🌦
Below is the chart & info for a SPY & QQQ forecast from @daarkmaagician, his DISCORD is the place to be (YEETers get two weeks free!).
SPY/QQQ Charts Legend:
Solid Blue= ATH, Green= Dark Pool Buys, Red= Dark Pool Sells, Purple= Dark Pools, Orange= Supports/Resistances, Teal= 9ema
SPY Forecast:
SPY Charts:
QQQ Forecast:
QQQ Charts:
Make sure you follow @daarkmaagician to get updates on the indexes daily!
Pt. 6: TLDR & GOODBYE ✌️
TLDR:
Pt. 2: Triggers 101 & 102 Video Review: Milt goes through the last two Build-A-Traders on Triggers in videos to review and solidify what you’ve learned.
Pt. 3: Build-A-Trader (B-A-T) 11: 9sma Strategies
Pt. 4:
🔒Kalshi Stone Cold Lock of the Week: YES on Will plug-in electric vehicles capture more than 4.4% of the car market in November?
🎯Spotrambo Pick of the week: WOOF to present at Needham Virtual Consumer Tech/E-Commerce Conference 11/22/21
👀 Watchlist: XOM, SBUX, NKLA, PEP, LOW
🥳️ BONUS: EBAY-an Unusual Play Bonus video!
Pt. 5: SPY & QQQ Forecast by @daarkmaagician
Goodbye and thanks for reading! Questions, scoops, comments @yourboymilt or /u/alldatdalton. See you next week! ✌
Hey Yeet, do you have a script for the volume coud you use for toss? thanks sir