🎄 YEET no 32: Twas The YEET Before Christmas
Welcome to The Yeet, a weekly DD where we try to tilt the casino...
Hey! I’m @yourboymilt, and welcome to retail’s Sunday Paper.
I should probably let you know...This is not financial advice! We are here to entertain while giving you ideas, perspective, and angles. Do your own research, I prithee. And if you aren’t subscribed, join us here:
Creator/Editor:@YourBoyMilt The Architect: 🧠 Publishing Associate:@YourGirlRachie
Pt. 1: Week’s Thoughts, Pt. 2: SwaggyStocks Sentiment Read & Giveaway (@SwaggyStocks, Pt. 3: Flow 401: Intro to Volume and Open Interest, Pt. 4: Watchlist Bonanza (Unusual Whales, Kalshi, SpotRAMBO, @EagleGroup), Pt. 5: Index Forecasts (@daarkmaagician ) Pt. 6: TLDR
Editorial Board: @jimengland & @jameoneill
🎄Pt. 1: Twas The YEET Before Christmas
🎁🎄🎅❄️☃️🦌🎁
🎵Wrecked my calls by buying weeklies
Guh guh guh guh guh, guh guh guh GUH
If she sees my all time she will leave me
Guh guh guh guh guh, guh guh guh GUH
Margin calls arrive this Monday
Guh guh GUH, guh guh GUH, guh guh guh
I knew I’d work for Wendy’s someday
Guh guh guh guh GUH, guh GUH , guh guh 🎵
Ah yes, it’s that magical time of year once again. The time of year when the snow drifts gently onto the ground beneath your feet. The time of year the smell of pine tickles your nose, and the chorus of carolers floats through night air like a sweet lullaby. The time of year you’ve absolutely given up on making breakeven for 2021, and are already telling your friends how “you’re gonna kill it” in 2022.
Sure ya will. 😆
Ho-ho-howwwwww fucked up was this week for options traders; the Nasdaq saw wilder movement than your drunk uncle trying to stand after sipping his “private” eggnog. This much was to be expected given the FOMC meeting Wednesday and OpEx on Friday, but things still felt a bit…out of the holiday spirit.
The Nasdaq 100 surged 2.4% on Wednesday when the Fed announced a faster end to its program of economic stimulus and signaled two rate hikes next year, only to wipe out the entire gain the next session. All told, tech-heavy gauge dropped more than 3% over five days for one of the worst weeks this year.
Holidays can be illusions, the presentation of values and priorities as part whimsy, part myth, and all fairy tale. The cookies mysteriously eaten off the plate. The overweight middle-aged man at the mall behind a beard of white. The coal that ruins the naive hopes of naughty children around the world. And, now, the illusion that our own bullish greed in the midst of FOMC and OpEx week is the cause of all our recent losses.
🎁🎄🎅❄️☃️🦌🎁
🎵🎵 On the fifth day of OpEx my J. Pow gave to me…
Five bleeding LEAAAPPPsssss
Four heavy bags
Three busted plays
Two Margin Calls
And an account blown up by shitty DD🎵🎵
Sure, OpEx could be a reasonable culprit, but a bit of research shows this to be another myth shining as bright as Rudolph’s nose. This index bumpiness has been par for the course for the past month now–we were just too blinded by potential for the “Santa Rally” to see it.
The smooth ride that has been the signature of this bull market is at risk. The Nasdaq 100 has posted five daily moves of at least 2% over the past three weeks — three up and two down. That matched the total number of comparably wild sessions in the previous five months.
So, we don’t know what is causing the turbulence of the past few weeks, but there are several reasons thrown out as the cause of our Clause-esque big red bags. Is it the Omicron variant, which is suddenly turning this into another Winter of our discontent? Is it valuations soaring higher than a sleigh, suddenly plummeting back to Earth as if driven by Rudolph gone off the Hennie? Is it MMs finally unwinding their positions in preparation for a bear market coming in 2022?
Here’s my Hot Take; who dafuq knows.
In a week where The Fed committed to three rate hikes in 2022, one might wonder how on Earth we had any gas to begin with on Wednesday in response to that announcement? Well, one answer reigns supreme, and it’s a tale as old as that of St. Nick himself: Becky is BACK and she needs those Christmas presents to flex on the ‘Gram! As the smell of Starbucks Peppermint Mocha permeated malls and breaths across the nation, consumers took the opportunity to buy Christmas presents at a frenzied pace:
Retail sales rose just 0.3%, or 0.2% minus autos and gas. Factoring in modest upward revisions to October's sizzling gain, growth was about half the pace expected. Consumers may have done their Christmas shopping early amid worry over product shortages. With goods spending still elevated, households may have spent more of their wallet share on services. Spending at bars and restaurants rose 1% in November, putting it among the strongest categories.
With overall retail sales up an impressive 18.2% from a year ago in November, it's premature to worry that inflation is denting households' urge to splurge.
But again…who really knows?
What we do know, however, is that we could be setting up for Short Squeeze Season pt. 2: Electric Boogaloo. Analysts at J.P. Morgan are now pounding the table on the potential for short positions being dropped like a bad habit heading into the New Year.
While the Russell 3000 Index is up 20% this year, the median stock is down 21% from the recent peak. Such a wide divergence reflects “a historically unprecedented overshoot” in selling smaller and more volatile stocks — economically sensitive shares in particular — that was mostly driven by hedge funds stepping up bearish bets while cutting back on their risk exposure, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic.
All the bearishness likely sets the stage for a rebound into the new year, when the pandemic comes to an end and the economy keeps expanding, Kolanovic says. “This market episode may end up in a short squeeze and cyclical rally into year-end and January,” he wrote in a note Friday.
The greatest presents are the ones unexpected, like mom and dad giving you that pursed-lip look as you unwrap the gift they swore they wouldn’t get you. Through fears of coal and stockings stuffed with socks, you sit hiding the quiet knowledge that something big is coming. The heavy box, the bike with the bow, the PS5 suddenly and conspicuously sitting in the corner.
From one YOLOer to another, I ask you, what better Christmas Gift could we get than short squeezes into the New Year? Let’s unwrap some hedgies, Season’s YEETings.
Editor’s Note: This is the final YEET of 2021, and wow, you all have amazed me. From a small idea in March, this has grown to 7,500 loyal subscribers and a shitload of memes. This project has given me joy, you’ve all given me purpose, and each week feels like I’m wrapping and unwrapping a new present. From my family to yours, Happy Holidays, and we can’t wait to do it again next year.
Welcome to YEET no. 32, brought to you by Jolly Old St. YEET.
🥸 Pt. 2: Social Sentiment - The Power Behind the Memes
Contributor: @SwaggyStocks, SwaggyStocks' Substack
The meme-stock craze has died off, but does that mean they are no longer relevant? The thing is, social sentiment can play a major role in the direction a stock is moving.
In today’s day and age of instant gratitude momentum happens fast so its best to always be prepared. That’s why we’ve partnered with the most comprehensive social sentiment platform of them all, SwaggyStocks. In the next several editions of the YEET we’ll be going through some of the awesome tools the platform provides, like the trending meme stocks on WallStreetBets where you can see which stocks are moving and the bullish or bearish sentiment behind each ticker.
SwaggyStocks has a MAJOR update coming to the site (very soon). We can’t give too many details, but we heard that it’s going to revolve around the social sentiment behind the crypto scene.
In anticipation of the crypto launch, our boy Swaggy is going to be giving away $250 in Bitcoin (BTC) and also $250 in Amazon gift cards (for those that aren’t into crypto) to 5 lucky people. The only rules are that you need to subscribe to his newsletter, so check it out and subscribe below. He will be drawing the winners this week.
🌊 Pt. 3: Flow 401: Intro to Volume and Open Interest
Wow! Back to our grind with the Unusual Whales tutorials–and it feels like we never left. This week I wanted to talk about something that has upped my game; incorporating volume and open interest in my Whale Hunting.
I’d previously done this with alerts, but it feels great to have figured out how to include this with my flow reads.
If you want to see how we’ve caught some of these crazy 100%+ plays the past couple weeks ($SNAP, $MGM, $RBLX, etc), check out the video below.
👀 Pt. 4: The Watchlist Picks
Made possible with help from the @unusualwhales Alerts and Flow Tool (Sign up here!), and Events Trading with the YEET’s Partner Kalshi. Plus a Guest Watchlist by @EagleGroup
🔒 Kalshi YOLO of the Week:
NO on Will New York City public schools be fully open on February 7, 2022?
Using this one as a hedge for my oil and boomer longs, but also because I generally lean toward skepticism. If any city is going to alter school because of Omicron it’s NYC– if I’m right, it’s nearly a 2.5 bagger!
🔥We’re running a competition y’all!🔥
Week one just ended and week two begins today! The YEET is paying the 5 users who make the most money on Kalshi legit cash prizes. All you have to do is send a screenshot of your account load, moves made, and current account balance to spotrambotrades@gmail.com by next Sunday (day after Christmas) by midnight PST.
Competition Rules and Payout:
Must have your screenshots in to spotrambotrades@gmail.com by midnight PST Sunday December 26th.
1st place - $250
2nd place - $125
3rd place - $50
4th place - $25
5th place - $25
👀 WatchList Bonanza: AMZN, TSLA, FB( by @EagleGroup); ABNB (Milt’s Pick)
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s @EagleGroup swooping down from the skies! I guess that’s technically a bird, but, that’s neither here nor there.
@EagleGroup is one of the most thorough Watchlist creators around, and we wanted to share his plays and mindset with you all as he uses charts and flow tools. Sit back, relax, and learn from a pro. Caawww!!!
⭐️ Milt’s Watchlist Pick of the Week:
ABNB Calls > 158.31
📈 ABNB: Flow Chart 10k+ Premium 55% Bullish
⌚️ABNB: Expirations and Strike
⌚️Exp: 2/18, 4/14🐂
🔨Strikes: 155🐂
📊 ABNB: Chart
🔫 The ABNB Trigger: 158.31
Pt. 5: Weather: SPY & QQQ Forecast by @daarkmaagician 🌦
Below is the chart & info for a SPY & QQQ forecast from @daarkmaagician, his DISCORD is the place to be (YEETers get two weeks free!).
SPY/QQQ Charts Legend:
Solid Blue= ATH, Green= Dark Pool Buys, Red= Dark Pool Sells, Purple= Dark Pools, Orange= Supports/Resistances, Teal= 9ema
SPY Forecast:
SPY Charts:
QQQ Forecast:
QQQ Charts:
Make sure you follow @daarkmaagician to get updates on the indexes daily!
Pt. 6: TLDR & GOODBYE ✌️
TLDR:
Pt. 2: Tracking Social Sentiment and how it can play a major role in the direction a stock is moving w/ SwaggyStocks.
Pt. 3: Video Tutorial Flow 401: Intro to Volume and Open Interest,
Pt. 4: Watchlist
🔒 Kalshi YOLO of the Week: NO on Will New York City public schools be fully open on February 7, 2022?
👀 WatchList Bonanza: AMZN, TSLA, FB ( by @EagleGroup); ABNB (Milt’s Pick)
Pt. 5: SPY & QQQ Forecast by @daarkmaagician
Goodbye and thanks for reading! Questions, scoops, comments @yourboymilt or /u/alldatdalton. See you next week! ✌