đ°Help YEET Help You by Helping Our Partner Kalshi!
Read this and get $10 for completing a survey, and $5 for signing upđ°
WE NEED YOUR HELP! We canât do this one alone. And guess what? We will pay you.Â
Love The YEET? Want to help the YEET? You can start by helping us in our partnership with Kalshi. Theyâre trying to figure out what options traders want from âEvents Contractsâ, and weâre gonna help âem out! Weâll pay you straight cash to do a quick survey for us, and pay you even more if you sign up for Kalshi, too! But more on that later, hereâs the basics (read this and the survey/sign up will take about 5 minutes or less):
đWhatâs an Event Contract? It canât be as simple as it sounds...right?
The thing to understand is that this is based on a new type of trading contract based on real life, the âEvent Contractâ. Yes--events as in events, as in the stuff that is happening all around us in the world everyday. An âeventâ can be something as simple as what song will be the most played this year, or as nuanced as the amount of cases of the Omicron Variant that will be reported next month. You can trade life. Literally.
đ¤Why would you choose to trade an event when you can just trade options? Two reasons.
Go with what you know: Given how time consuming being in the market is, you likely know very little about that bright thing glaring off your monitor--itâs called the outside world. What you may still remember of that faraway place is what you can trade on with Event Contracts, and you can make cash from it. For example, I studied International politics and know a ton about it; yet not working in the field, thereâs been no way for my know-it-all self to make money off a news story. Thatâs the main purpose of event contracts--to be able to profit directly off your own knowledge against that of general opinion. There are also events that are about simpler stuff that we all know; sports, entertainment, and so on.
2. Insure yourself: There are a variety of Event Contracts you can trade on, and some of them are even niche enough that they cover your normal life routine. Got a ball game tomorrow and see it may rain? Grab a quick weather contract as insurance against your ticket. This is, admittedly, the more boomer purpose of event contractsđ´.
So Milt, wtf is Kalshi?
Kalshi is just the exchange that hosts a bunch of cool event markets so you have a place to trade them, kind of like the NYSE. Depending on what you follow, there are a host of different types of âEventâ categories you can trade on.
*You can choose anything from scientific news to sports lockouts
Milt, is it like options? I only understand options. Why are you talking about something thatâs not options like itâs options?!
Donât you worry my fellow degenerate, the contracts work the same way except simpler. Most Kalshi contracts have a two-choice binary system; youâre picking between just a Yes or No. Letâs use this coming Fridayâs CPI numbers as an example:
Donât worry, there is way less happening here than it looks, lol. Here is a really simple way to think about the contracts youâd be purchasing. The contracts correlate with probability, or the sentiment on the market between 0% and a 100% chance of the Yes or No event occurring. This is represented in your contract as the number between $0.01 and $0.99 (0.78=78%)
Or, you could just enter it into the area on the right hand side (duh), which is easier for someone like me who canât do quick maths.
âď¸There are two specific ways to play event contracts that make these almost identical to options contracts in how you play them.
đDiamond Hands: Holding an event contract until expiration
Each contract is tied to a specific expiration date, just like an options contract. For example, November CPI numbers come out this Friday, so just as an options contract would expire on a Friday, thatâs when yours does. At expiration, if youâre right each contract you bought settles to $1.
đŞScalping and Swinging Trades
đLike Greeks in Options, probability makes the value in an event contract dynamic rather than static. Contract probability moves with the news, meaning if something good or bad happens for your event itâs reflected in the price of the contract. You can use this to your advantage for media overreactions to events, the same way you may buy the dip or sell the rip on news you think will fizzle out.
đĄSo, from the example based on inflation numbers coming Friday: say for some reason lumber prices were found to have gone even higher than previously thought the day before inflation numbers came out, due to some random comment from the Home Depot CEO. That would lead the market to give higher probability to the YES (higher than the 0.6 CPI number), and your contract would move higher in value.  Think of it as analogous to holding a monthly options contract and suddenly getting news positively affects the underlying. You know, like what literally happens every day with TSLA.
Once the contract moves higher, you can sell it and lock in profits!
đśMiltâs experience: I follow sports pretty avidly when Iâm not trading and I wanted to bet on the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement not happening by January 4th. I watch ESPN all the time in the background when Iâm trading (and should be working my real job), and I knew there was no way it passes soon. You remember the tweet? Pepperidge Farm remembers:
When I snagged these on the 13th of last month, âNoâ votes were trading for .80 a contract.
đ°Now that itâs clear the CBA ainât happening, Iâm sitting pretty at 16% profit and as we approach the expiration even closer Iâll probably cash out for an easy 20%. Iâll be plainspoken; I found it to be a really fun way to stay engaged with the news after market hours.
As for loading up my money, it took like two days. An earlier trade I cashed out on took about two days to get back. I did have a whiff on Covid numbers one week (total whiff), but it was like right when Omicron started raging I think I traded it the day before or something.
đ¨This sounds like new territory! What are the boring guarantees and fine print so that I know this isnât The YEETâs secret plan for money laundering?
Event contracts are fully regulated, so you know there are no shenanigans afoot. You can also even suggest contracts which is pretty cool; we can now bet on your boring life if youâre able to convince the Kalshi overseers itâs worthwhile! Those suggestions--and any event market--go through a fairly complex process to ensure that the contracts canât be manipulated and are âup to snuffâ. Kalshi even does all that good security stuff like run through Plaid, and verify each traderâs identity etc.Â
So, why do you need our help, YEET?
â So, you guys havenât been using Kalshi a bunch yet, and we both want to know why. To that effect, The YEET is giving you FREE MONEYSSSSS!  Yep, thatâs right--free. Hereâs how it breaks down.
$10 to complete this survey giving us your opinion, whether you actually sign up or not. No bullshit! The YEET will send you a email mastercard gift card with your money when youâre done!
$5 additional dollars if you sign up using The YEETâs sign-up link. https://kalshi.com/join/yeet
đĽWeâre also going to run a competition yâall!đĽ
Each of the next two weeks, The YEET is paying the 5 users who make the most money on Kalshi legit cash prizes. All you have to do is send a screenshot of your account load, moves made, and current account balance to spotrambotrades@gmail.com by next Saturday, and the following Sunday (day after Christmas) by midnight PST. The first week of competition begins this Sunday with The YEETâs publication.
Competition Rules and Payout:Â
Must have your screenshots in to spotrambotrades@gmail.com by midnight PST Saturday December 18th for week 1 competition, and Sunday December 26th for week 2.
1st place - $250
2nd place - $125
3rd place - $50
4th place - $25
5th place - $25
We are fully transparent here at The YEET, so we want you to know we believe in this form of trading and how cool it can be once it catches on. Help us help you--letâs figure out how to make this thing work and all get paid in the process!
Canât wait til thereâs a contract for The YEET going public, woot!