Hey! I’m @yourboymilt, and welcome to retail’s Sunday Paper.
I should probably let you know...This is not financial advice! We are here to entertain while giving you ideas, perspective, and angles. Do your own research, I prithee. And if you aren’t subscribed, join us here:
Creator/Editor:@YourBoyMilt The Architect: 🧠 Publishing Associate:@YourGirlRachie
Pt. 1: Week’s Thoughts, Pt. 2: Crypto (@YeetSourMilk, @YeetCapybara), Pt. 3: How to Make a Watchlist Tutorial, Pt. 4: Watchlist (Unusual Whales) Guest Watchlist (@EagleGroup, Pt. 5: Index Forecasts (@daarkmaagician ) Pt. 6: TLDR
Editorial Board: @jimengland & @jameoneill
🕷Pt. 1: No Way Home
Alone. In darkness and in doubt.
Destruction fell upon our dear market as all we could do as citizens was stand and watch, helpless as a new villain took hold of our beloved tech calls. After last week’s YEET which was focused on the potentially increasing chaos ahead, I suppose we should’ve taken our own advice and bought some damn puts.
What caused this rampage through our town? What was the villain with malice directed toward our continued ascent? On the surface it seems the most logical explanation is the “pricing in” of shifting valuations in the face of coming rate hikes.
Markets finished the week lower as investors attempted to “price in” (find an appropriate valuation level in the face of higher rates) the potential for as many as four Federal Reserve interest rate hikes by year end.
The rate hikes used to sit in the distance but are now a problem upon us, and one that is filling the bullish heroes of 2020 and 2021 with dread. The worst part? We have no idea whatsoever how many rate hikes are coming, and the truth is hidden in a facade of cloaking smoke like The Green Goblin whizzing into the night. A few weeks ago it was two hikes, then we heard about three, and now suddenly we’re coming to grips with four. Then, this doozy hit us right in the mouth….
"The table is set pretty well for growth," Dimon said during the bank's earnings call on Friday, "with obviously the negative being inflation and how that gets navigated and stuff like that."
"So, my view is a pretty good chance there’ll be more than 4 [rate hikes]," Dimon went on to say. "It could be 6 or 7."
Dimon explained, "I grew up in a world where [Carter and Reagan-era Fed chief Paul Volcker] raised interest 200 basis points on a Saturday night. And this whole notion that somehow it’s going to be sweet and gentle and no one is ever going to be surprised I think is a mistake…"
Well I grew up in a world called 2020 Post-Pandemic stonks where the printer always went BRRRRRRR, so how dare you sir. While he may be spreading FUD for this, Dimon is right in one sense–it’s happened before, and it’s been brutal.
If only it was as easy as facing this enemy before us, but alas, we’ve got a rogue’s gallery of past foes we’d thought we’d slain on our hands. Somehow, for the market to remain in a bullish stance, we must navigate the FUD of nagging bearish catalysts we’d once thought we’d defeated.
Inflation concerns hover like a resilient foe that won’t just die, seemingly reviving its importance to lift us or to screw us each month. This week’s response to CPI was muted, however, likely owing to the fact the rate increases—which inflation spurs on—are now firmly priced into any result. Yet and still, each month brings new concerns about the readings and what they mean for our market. It sits quietly, charging up a bearish explosion with each CPI release like Electro.
Jobs numbers have re-emerged as an all-important economic indicator, rising from the shadows of indifference they were cast to during the first Pandemic market run. Intertwined numbers and comparative measures arrive in a more confusing attack than Doc Oc’s tentacles; one set of numbers is good but another is bad, and the market reacts good to the bad ones and bad to the good ones. Again, as we see with inflation, it’s directly tied to the implications for rate hikes.
Although the headline jobs numbers were disappointing, the government also said that wages rose 4.7% over the past 12 months. That could bode well for consumer spending, even as it may also be raising fears that the Federal Reserve will step up plans to raise rates in order to fight inflation.
"Wage growth being strong and the unemployment rate declining more than expected puts the Fed on a more hawkish trajectory with rate hikes," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist with BMO Wealth Management. "The economy is closer to full employment and the market is coming to terms with the implications of that."
And, of course…Covid Covid Covid. An enemy that still looms over us, but one that is dispatched with the ease of throwing Sandman in a swimming pool. Apparently, it doesn’t really matter how many hospitalizations or variants we have, because travel keeps surfacing its head somehow with a cringe-inducing resilience. In fact, much of the Unusual Options Activity we’ve seen for the coming week relates to this frustrating sector.
We look anxiously from a perch above, glancing down on the market below, ready to swing in and out of weeklies and monthlies with a calculated recklessness. Old foes fade and new dangers of rate raises grasp at us, obscuring our straight shot to the tendies we so rightfully deserve. Straight ahead we have OpEx week, another exhausting fight of market manipulations as our protective suit of liquidity has been tattered, and our will to YOLO ripped to shreds.
Valuations, inflation, joblessness, and rate increases threaten to trap us in the past with the bearish ghosts of previous rate increases. If that happens, the run of 2020 is gone, and we’re trapped in the bearish claws of coming account destruction in 2022 with No Way Home.
Welcome to YEET no. 34, brought to you by Tobey Maguire the best Spiderman.
🪙 Pt. 2: Tales from the Crypto
by: @YeetSourMilk & @YeetCapybara
Greetings! Capybara and Sourmilk are back with another edition of Crypto for the YEET. What has happened in the last week? Well, BTC has made some small moves and was rejected from 44k but we largely had a week without any big fireworks. Overall, the market still looks like hot garbage and we still think you should buy. Looking at BTC on the daily chart we can see that BTC is still hovering near the critical 40k support zone and the daily RSI made a small move out of the oversold territory. As we stated before, BTC must defend this area or we are headed back to sad times of chopping in the 30s.
Remember, scale-in slowly and always leave some dry powder to catch any big dips. We got some more coins that we are excited to show you all so let’s get started!
Altcoin Picks
Gala (GALA)
Gala is the crypto used in the Gala Games metaverse for purchasing aesthetic skins and functional items alike. This playground of free-to-play online games comes in 8 different flavors, ranging from Survival MMORPGs like “The Walking Dead: Empires” to Tower Defense games like “Fortified” - Even a couple of Simulation games if you’re looking for something a bit slower paced, like Town Star. GALA is a blockchain universe where the players really own the items in their games in a decentralized way, meaning no server crash or system hack can take away the things you’ve obtained - and moreover, via a distributed voting mechanism, players are given a real vote in the path the Gala Games roadmap takes. These games are still in development so you can’t play just yet, but you can already customize your characters.
Entries: 0.30, 0.29, 0.27, 0.258, 0.218, 0.2038, 0.19
Exits: 0.36, 0.385, 0.415, 0.45, 0.47, 0.51, 0.54, 0.5725, 0.615
Avalaunch (XAVA)
Avalaunch is an investor & fundraiser focused initial dex offering (IDO) “launchpad”. An initial dex offering is an alternative to initial coin offerings (ICO), which are akin to the IPOs in the stock market that we all know and love - unlike ICOs, IDOs do not launch on any particular exchange, and their price cannot be manipulated by the initial creators of the crypto. XAVA is built on the Avalanche (AVAX) blockchain, so it offers quick transactions and low costs. Holders of the crypto can stake it for an allocation on future IDOs, basically buying a place on the roster allowing you to participate - what’s cool about XAVA is that there is a maximum limit on per-person allocation, thus preventing the chance that whales can come in and manipulate any project of IDO.
Entries: 8.3, 7.95, 7.5, 7.25, 6.7, 6.35, 5.9, 5.6, 5.07, 4.75
Exits: 9.9, 11, 11.65, 12.5, 13, 13.85, 14.5, 16, 17, 19
Fantom (FMT)
This has been a crypto that’s been on our radar for some time now, and if you spent time in Dark Magician’s Discord you may have seen us calling this coin out a few months ago. FTM is a layer-1 crypto that is decentralized and open-sourced. Highly scalable, Fantom is a great choice for Decentralized Applications (Dapps). Transactions take 1 second or less and cost around $0.0000001, making it 300 million times cheaper than Ethereum and 15-300 times fast for money transfers.
Let’s compare the market caps of FTM and SOL (one can dream, right?)
FTM has run hard the last week, up roughly 50% in the last 7 days. You can choose to get in now but waiting for a pullback may also be a wise idea. Let’s look at the chart!
Entries: 3, 2.63, 2.45, 2.20, 2.03, 1.91, 1.75, 1.53, 1.43
Exits: The moon (but really, this has big potential and should stay in your long-term portfolio)
Alright folks, that’s it for this week! Remember to scale-in slowly and don’t go crazy if the market dumps some more. Crypto will bounce eventually, it always does.
🐳 Pt. 3: How to Create a Watchlist with Unusual Whales
👀 Pt. 4: The Watchlist Picks
Made possible with help from the @unusualwhales Alerts and Flow Tool. Sign up here!
❗️Note: These are the contracts that caught our eye–does NOT mean we are going to play it as risky as the whale!❗️
⭐️ Milt’s Watchlist: LVS, CRM, TSM — 🦅 Eagle’s Picks: AAP, AAPL, NVDA, VZ
1. LVS 148c 1/21
This bad boy already ran a lot after great regulatory news from Macao sent it and its peers skyrocketing 14% on Friday. However, I just can’t ignore the action on the 48c 1/21—deep outside the money, and a whale sold their 1/21 44c and grabbed these higher strikes on Friday.
📊The Volume to Open Interest. Volume in red and OI in blue on the left chart, historical Open Interest on the right hand side.
🤔The Historical Call and Put Premiums spent: On our current date to the far right, you’ll see a large spike in call and put premium spent. Often with memes or shit about to get meme-ish, they run together.
Put to call ratio: General Rule of Thumb is about .7 or lower=boolish. The lower it is, the better! .37 on this one.
2. CRM 150c 1/28
This sleeping giant was on a nice little run we played for 50% on Twitter before everything started dumping. The 250c seemed to gather quite a bit of attention.
📊Volume and Open Interest
🤔Historical Call and Put Premiums
P/C Ratio: .67
3. TSM 150c 1/21
This one had a nice earnings report on Thursday, but couldn’t stand up to a shitty market. It looks like a whale has been building into these 150c 1/21 since then–maybe the bullish report is set to catch up in a major way.
Volume to Open Interest
Historical Call and Put Premium
P/C Ratio:
🦅 Eagle’s Picks:
Pt. 5: Weather: SPY & QQQ Forecast by @daarkmaagician 🌦
Below is the chart & info for a SPY & QQQ forecast from @daarkmaagician, his DISCORD is the place to be (YEETers get two weeks free!).
SPY/QQQ Charts Legend:
Solid Blue= ATH, Green= Dark Pool Buys, Red= Dark Pool Sells, Purple= Dark Pools, Orange= Supports/Resistances, Teal= 9ema
SPY Forecast:
SPY Charts:
QQQ Forecast:
QQQ Charts:
Make sure you follow @daarkmaagician to get updates on the indexes daily!
Pt. 6: TLDR & GOODBYE ✌️
TLDR:
Pt. 2: Crypto boys discuss BTC, GALA, XAVA & FMT
Pt. 3: Video tutorial on how we use Unusual Whales tools to create a watchlist
Pt. 4: ⭐️ Milt’s Watchlist: LVS, CRM, TSM — 🦅 Eagle’s Picks: AAP, AAPL, NVDA, VZ
Pt. 5: SPY & QQQ Forecast by @daarkmaagician
Goodbye and thanks for reading! Questions, scoops, comments @yourboymilt or /u/alldatdalton. See you next week! ✌